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This was supposed to be the week Al Gore, the perpetual understudy, assumed the role of "Comeback Kid" made famous by his boss at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Hoping to overcome Texas Governor George W. Bush's nagging lead in the polls, the Vice-President on June 13 kicked off a much-hyped "prosperity and progress" tour through the American heartland to tout the Administration's economic accomplishments.
But a funny thing happened on the way to Cincinnati. The revolving door at Gore campaign headquarters spun again: Gore 2000 Chairman Tony Coelho quit suddenly on June 15, replaced just as suddenly by Commerce Secretary William M. Daley. Overnight campaign-in-disarray screeds replaced the longed-for favorable press coverage of Gore's plans to fatten middle-class wallets.
More bad news for the Nashville nabobs? Republicans fervently hope so. Team Bush was quick to dismiss the latest Tennessee two-step as another sign of chaos within the Gore operation, perhaps the forerunner of a new New Al Gore. But Republicans shouldn't get too gleeful about Coelho's departure. It may be the best thing that has happened to Gore all year. Here's why:
ETHICAL LIABILITY.
Coelho, 58, a former Democratic House member, is a lightning rod for controversy. He has alienated many of Gore's oldest friends by removing them from the campaign operation. And he has angered some Democratic leaders with his less-than-diplomatic urgings that they shut up and fall into line behind the candidate, whatever their doubts about Gore.
While Coelho, a former business executive, was seen by many as an effective administrator and firm decision-maker, he remained an ethical liability in a campaign trying to escape damage from Gore's 1996 fund-raising tactics. Coelho had resigned from Congress in 1989 amid an ethics investigation. And while the epileptic Coelho said his latest exit was solely the result of doctor's orders to cut down on stress, some skeptical Democrats worry about the outcome of a criminal investigation into his activities related to the 1998 World Exposition in Portugal. The last thing Gore needs is a campaign chairman under an ethical cloud.
But it's not just Coelho's ethical compass that worries Democrats. His political instincts have been under fire, too. Critics have lambasted him for allowing Gore to become enmeshed in the political firestorm over Cuban boat boy Elian Gonzalez. Coelho has taken responsibility for the controversy that dogged Gore after the Vice-President broke with the President to back permanent residency for the six-year-old. In press reports, Gore came across as a panderer -- and his ratings among independent voters have not recovered since that incident. What's more, a smattering of liberals are telling pollsters they're prepared to cast a protest vote for consumer advocate Ralph Nader rather than back Gore.
A WINNER.
The political second-guessing of Coelho goes even deeper. Many Dems feared that he was fighting "the last war" in a brave, new political world. All the talk of Social Security, Medicare, and tax breaks for the rich is so 1982. (It's no surprise that Coelho used those same issues, quite effectively, as the House Democrats top campaign strategist -- in 1982.) Also, the Gore campaign's slashing negative rhetoric and harsh partisanship seems risky at a time when 83% of voters say negative campaigns are "wrong," according to a bipartisan poll conducted by Democrat Celinda Lake and Republican John Deardourff for the Institute for Global Ethics.
So what difference will Daley make? No. 1, he's a winner. The 51-year-old former corporate lawyer knows how to win tough fights. He has spearheaded the Administration's successful campaigns to win passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993 and China trade liberalization in May. Like Coelho, he's an effective administrator. Unlike Coelho, however, he's a diplomat. And he doesn't come across as a shrill partisan, despite his bloodlines as the son of the legendary Chicago mayor and ward boss.
Indeed, few people have a bad word to say about Bill Daley. Friendly and personable, though not charismatic, Daley has managed to get along with the unruly factions of the Democratic Party. And he's certain to help the Democratic ticket in his home state of Illinois, where his brother Richie, the mayor of Chicago, will pull out all the stops for little brother Bill.
NO SKELETONS.
Another Daley asset: The business community respects him. That can only help Gore. The Veep has just one-fifth the support that Bush has among CEOs of the largest 1,000 corporations, according to a Business Week analysis of Federal Election Commission data.
Then there's the issue of personal image. Unlike Coelho, Daley has a squeaky-clean reputation. The Democrats can send the new campaign chief to appear on the Sunday chat shows without fearing that he'll be asked about an ongoing criminal investigation.
In the end, the campaign chairman is unlikely to be the determining factor in the Presidential election. But if the election is close, as expected, Gore needs every edge he can get. Whether by luck or design, it seems the ascendancy of Bill Daley is a step in the right direction for the battered crew from Nashville.
Dunham covers the White House for Business Week from its Washington bureau
EDITED BY BETH BELTON
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