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Lifting the partial embargo on U.S. exports of food and medicines to Cuba could eventually mean $444 million in yearly sales to the island and a boost for America's beleaguered farm sector, says a study by Paula Stern, an economist and former chairman of the International Trade Commission. But exports to Cuba would still be hampered by the Caribbean nation's lack of hard currency or credit, other U.S. trade sanctions, and extensive Cuban regulations on imports, according to the study, which was released on June 15 and sponsored by a New York-based think tank.
Congress is considering legislation to liberalize some of the restrictions on sales of food and medicine to Cuba, as well as to Iran, Libya, the Sudan, and North Korea. But the Republican leadership in the House, mindful of opposition from Cuban Americans -- a vocal GOP constituency -- opposes easing the sanctions. House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) has threatened to strip an amendment from an agriculture appropriations bill that would make the change. Last year, the measure passed in the Senate by a 70-to-28 vote but was killed by DeLay in the House. Nevertheless, the amendment's principal sponsor, George Nethercutt (R-Wash.) said Thursday that he sensed that the GOP leadership's opposition to liberalizing trade with Cuba was softening.
The climate for easing export restrictions on Cuba is considered the strongest in the 38-year-old history of U.S. trade embargoes against the island nation. For one, the successful argument last month during House passage of legislation granting China normal trade relations -- that liberalization will help reform a communist dictatorship -- is now being applied to Havana. Meanwhile, trade restrictions on North Korea and Vietnam are being eased.
INORDINATE INFLUENCE.
"I spent several tours in Vietnam as a helicopter door-gunner, but now we are liberalizing trade with Vietnam, North and South Korea are meeting, and we are going to be freely trading with China. Meanwhile, 90 miles off our shores, we're still playing a political chess game," laments Michael Dow, mayor of Mobile, Ala., and a supporter of the legislation.
And the high-profile battle over custody of 6-year-old Elian Gonzales by the Cuban community in Miami has led many to question the inordinate influence the small immigrant group has had over U.S. policy toward Cuba. "Instead of focusing on this one child, we ought to be focusing on the 50,000 kids in Cuba who are not getting adequate medicines," said U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Thomas J. Donohue at a World Policy Institute conference, where the report was released.
The 23-page Stern report says that the $444 million in yearly agriculture and medical exports could be achieved after five years. A fully unrestricted trade in food and medicine to Cuba would eventually mean $1.6 billion in yearly U.S. exports, creating 20,000 U.S. jobs, according to the study. Still, the overall effect on the entire U.S. economy would be slight, since Cuba's economy is less than 1% of U.S. GDP. Nevertheless, recent market reforms -- opening to tourism and foreign investment, and allowing self-employment -- are expected to boost the economy and hard-currency reserves of Cuba. And U.S. farmers are enthusiastic. "The Cuban economy is slowly regaining its strength, and it will become very important to us," said Hope Huffman, a Central Texas cattle rancher and farmer at the conference. "And the chance of an uprising against Fidel Castro as a result of our embargo is zero."
By Paul Magnusson in Washington
EDITED BY BETH BELTON
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